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The final score doesn't always tell the full story of a football match. A team can win 1–0 and still look completely outplayed. That's exactly where expected goals (xG) and advanced stats come in — they measure the quality of what happened, not just the outcome.
For anyone who loves to watch and bets on FIFA World Cup matches, understanding these numbers changes how you read a game when you sign up at Solarbet.
What xG Actually Measures (And What It Doesn't)
Expected goals (xG) assigns a probability value to every shot taken in a match. A penalty kick has an xG of roughly 0.76 — meaning it's converted about 76% of the time historically. A header from 30 yards out might have an xG of 0.02.
The metric was developed by analytics firms like StatsBomb and Opta and is now standard across major football leagues and tournaments including the FIFA World Cup.
What xG measures:
Shot location on the pitch
Shot type (header, foot, direct free kick)
Assist type (cross, through ball, set piece)
Defensive pressure on the shooter
What xG doesn't measure:
Goalkeeper skill on that specific shot
Individual player finishing ability over small samples
Weather or pitch conditions
This matters for bettors because a team that wins 2–1 but has an xG of 0.8 vs their opponent's 2.4 likely got lucky — and that gap tends to correct itself in future matches.
How xG Played Out in Recent World Cup Data
At the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, advanced stats told a different story from the scoreboard on multiple occasions.
Saudi Arabia's 2–1 win over Argentina in the group stage was one of the tournament's biggest upsets. According to data from FBref (which sources StatsBomb), Argentina had an xG of approximately 4.1 in that match compared to Saudi Arabia's 0.6.
Argentina created more than enough chances to win by a large margin — they simply didn't convert, and Saudi Arabia's high defensive line caught Argentina offside 10 times in the first half alone.
For bettors watching live, the advanced stats screamed that Argentina's next match was likely to look very different — and it did. They went on to win their remaining group games and eventually the tournament.
Possession Stats vs. Possession Quality
A common mistake is treating possession percentage as a strength indicator. It's not. Holding 65% of the ball means nothing if most of that is sideways passes in your own half.
The better metric is progressive passes — passes that move the ball at least 10 metres closer to the opponent's goal. This is tracked by both Opta and StatsBomb for all World Cup matches.
PPDA: The Pressing Stat Bettors Ignore
PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action) measures how aggressively a team presses. A lower PPDA means the team wins the ball back faster in the opponent's half.
At the 2022 World Cup, Morocco had one of the lowest PPDAs in the knockout stages, reflecting their high-intensity defensive pressing — a key reason they kept clean sheets against Spain and Portugal. This wasn't visible in the scoreline alone. It showed up in their defensive structure metrics well before the scoreline validated it.
If you track PPDA across a team's tournament games, you can spot when a team's pressing intensity is dropping — a likely signal of fatigue heading into later rounds.
What xGA Tells You About a Defence
Just as xG measures attacking quality, xGA (expected goals against) measures how well a defence is performing relative to the chances they're conceding.
A goalkeeper or backline with an xGA significantly higher than actual goals conceded is likely overperforming — and may regress in later matches. Conversely, a defence leaking goals but keeping xGA low is performing below what the numbers suggest and could tighten up.
This was visible with Croatia at the 2022 World Cup. Their xGA numbers through the group stage suggested they were conceding quality chances — which made their clean sheet run in the knockouts partly a function of Dominik Livaković's exceptional save percentage, not just defensive solidity.
How to Use These Stats Before Placing a Bet
You don't need to be a data analyst to apply these numbers. Most of this data is freely available through:
FBref.com — sourced from StatsBomb, covers World Cup matches with full advanced stat breakdowns
Sofascore — gives live xG during matches, updated in real time
Fotmob — provides post-match xG and shot maps for major international tournaments
Before betting on a World Cup match, a practical checklist:
Check each team's xG and xGA from their last 3 matches
Look at whether results are tracking with underlying performance or diverging from it
Compare progressive passes to see which team is genuinely pushing forward
Check PPDA if a team is known for pressing — has it changed between matches?
The Limit of Advanced Stats in Tournament Football
Advanced stats are most reliable over large sample sizes — a full league season with 38 games. The World Cup compresses everything into 3 group stage matches and a knockout format.
Small samples mean variance is higher. A goalkeeper can overperform their xGA for 4–5 matches. A striker can go cold despite high-quality chances. The numbers point in the right direction, but they don't eliminate uncertainty.
The right approach is to use advanced stats as one input among several — not a guaranteed edge, but a way to spot when the market price on a match doesn't match what the underlying data suggests.
Watch FIFA World Cup Live at Solarbet
With only a few days left until the event kicks off, we want to make sure you have a reliable place to stay updated. Finding a platform where you can catch every match live while also having the chance to bet on sports is essential for the full experience.
At Solarbet, the World Cup betting markets are built to reflect real match data — giving you better context when you're deciding how to back a game.
When a match ends 1–0, the scoreline tells you who won. The xG, progressive passes, and PPDA tell you whether they deserved to — and whether the same result is likely next time.
That gap between result and performance is where the most informed bets are made.
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